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Tracking his father’s footsteps Canada’s Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau, takes carbon-pricing plan to industry’s home base; promises ‘ambitious, visionary’ ideas Gary Park For Petroleum News
The battle lines are being drawn for a Canadian election, which could be called for any time between this spring and October, with climate change and its “remedies” looming large among the issues that could determine whether Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government ends its nine years in power.
The latest polls point to Liberal leader Justin Trudeau as the best bet to topple Harper, making him and his promise of an “ambitious and visionary” national plan to tackle carbon dioxide emissions a source of disquiet within the petroleum industry.
Canadians whose memories stretch back to the 1970s and 1980s need no reminding that the 43-year-old is the eldest son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who was prime minister for most of the 16 years from 1968 to 1984 and was rated by some as Canada’s most charismatic leader and by others as its most divisive force.
National Energy Program In 1980 the elder Trudeau was permanently labeled as Public Enemy No. 1 when he answered the global oil crisis with a National Energy Program that put a fixed price on crude, hiked taxes on producers and poured billions of dollars into a futile stimulus push to open up Arctic and frontier resources.
The result was a pull-out from Canada of many U.S.-based companies, the loss of thousands of jobs and a flood of home foreclosures in Calgary where properties were being sold for C$1 to free the owners from their mortgages.
Against that background, Justin Trudeau boldly stepped in front of a Calgary Petroleum Club luncheon on Feb. 6 and admitted he understood “how energy issues can divide the country. But I also know that strong leadership can see us through the challenges we face ... leadership that listens, that respects our differences while bringing people together and keeps the door open to new and innovative ideas.”
He said that while the Harper government has failed to deliver on its promises to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the provincial governments of Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec and, soon, Ontario have introduced carbon levies, taxes or cap-and-trade agreements.
Delegation to UN climate summit If elected, Trudeau said he would call a meeting with provincial premiers within 90 days and to lead a Canadian delegation to December’s United Nations climate summit in Paris to help Canada shed its image as a “laggard” on environmental issues.
Although he stopped short of proposing an increase in Alberta’s existing carbon fee of C$15 per metric ton on heavy GHG emitters, Trudeau said a national carbon price is the best way to ensure access to global markets for Canadian oil.
But he offered an assurance that provinces would be free to create their own policies.
Prentice: Keeping Alberta competitive Despite Trudeau’s vagueness about his goals, Alberta Premier Jim Prentice was quick to stake out his own position.
“We’ll fight to keep Alberta competitive,” he told reporters. “It’s all well and good for people to talk about increasing the carbon levy ... but understand that the people we compete with in the energy industry attach a zero price to their carbon.
“I am certainly not going to stand back idly while Alberta’s competitiveness is challenged by anyone,” he declared.
Prentice said Alberta needs flexibility to design its own policies on carbon pricing.
Megan Leslie, deputy leader of the New Democratic Party, the major opposition part in Canada’s current parliament, said Trudeau was offering “nothing but platitudes and vague promises. It is clear (he) has no plan for balancing the environment and the economy.”
Uncertainty lease desirable commodity Uncertainty is the least desirable commodity these days in Alberta when Canada’s economic leader is just starting to tally up the costs of what could be the most damaging oil price slump since the 1980s.
Benjamin Tal, an analyst with CIBC World markets, has forecast Alberta’s unemployment rate will surge this year to 6.8 percent from 4.3 percent, while disposable income falls by 0.5 percent to 1 percent.
The Conference Board of Canada also weighed in with a warning that Canadian oil producers will lose C$40 billion in revenues in 2015, although crude exports could rise by 200,000 barrels per day to 3 million bpd.
Even so, the board said the steep cuts to capital budgets will trigger “substantial layoffs” in the industry and related businesses.
And the Royal Bank of Canada projected that Alberta’s economy will grow by only 0.6 percent this year, compared with a Canada-wide growth of 2.4 percent.
If those forecasts take shape, all political parties and leaders will face a trickiest of high-wire acts as they unveil their climate-change policies during the upcoming election campaign.
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