Report: Cook Inlet gas supply runs deep

The Associated Press

There is likely enough gas in Alaska’s Cook Inlet for all uses — home heating, generation of electricity, fertilizer and liquefied natural gas — through about 2025, according to a consultant conducting a study for the U.S. Department of Energy.

But gas prices probably would have to rise to encourage companies to drill for the new supplies, said Charles Thomas.

Thomas told engineers at a March 9 luncheon that he expects to formally unveil the $500,000 study, commissioned out of concern that Cook Inlet gas seems to be running low, by May 1.

That’s true for the supplies in known gas fields, Thomas said, most of which were prior to 1970 by companies hunting for oil.

But a statistical analysis Thomas has run with the help of geologists and others indicates that there’s much more gas in and around Cook Inlet — in fact, almost double the quantity already found. His best estimate is that 15-20 trillion cubic feet could come from new discoveries or expansion of existing fields. To date, 10 trillion cubic feet has been found.

Cook Inlet ought to yield ample gas through at least 2025, with field expansion and “aggressive and successful exploration” for new supplies, he said, noting that if geologists are wrong there’s plenty more available from unconventional sources such as coalbed methane.

Mark Myers, director of the state of Alaska’s Division of Oil and Gas, said in late February that he had seen a draft of the study and thought it contained good information. He said he agrees with “a lot of the baseline data” in the study.

“It does a reasonable job of saying there’s exploration potential out there. One of the challenges, though, is … that potential onshore is being drilled up pretty rapidly,” Myers said.

What that leaves is offshore, and that requires mobilizing a jack-up rig, which can cost some $10-$12 million just to get to Alaska: “The fields you’d have to find would be substantial in size … because setting a platform out there is pretty expensive.” And the big unknown for Cook Inlet — and a potential big source of natural gas — is CBM, Myers said, but neither of the two pilot programs drilled so far have demonstrated CBM to be commercial.

“But if it were to work, there could be a substantial gas,” he said. “That gas would most likely relieve local needs in the areas where it’s found” in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, “and then put it into the Enstar system to come farther south.”

Petroleum News contributed to this article