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Research group gives upbeat outlook for Canadian gas Cambridge Energy Research Associates confident northeastern British Columbia will contribute to production turnaround by 2010 Gary Park Petroleum News Calgary Correspondent
Northeastern British Columbia’s lively natural gas play holds out hope of reversing the downward spiral in Canadian exports to the United States, Cambridge Energy Research Associates predicts.
In a continental gas supply forecast to 2010, the firm predicted that shrinking output from the Western Canada sedimentary basin will come to an end, given the British Columbia potential of EnCana’s plans for Greater Sierra and Cutbank Ridge and Talisman Energy’s deep Monkman prospect.
Despite the decline of about 500 million cubic feet per day from British Columbia’s once prolific Ladyfern field, which has dropped Canadian output to 16.5 billion cubic feet per day from 17 billion in 2001, Cambridge Energy forecasts 2010 volumes will grow by slightly more than 2 billion cubic feet per day.
It expects Canada’s coalbed methane output could grow to 500 million cubic feet per day over the next six years and might even exceed that level. North American demand surge to 71 bcf by 2010 Cambridge Energy is counting on combined U.S. and Canadian gas demand surging to 71 billion cubic feet per day by 2010 from 62 billion this year, with about 70 percent of that demand growth coming from gas-fired power generation.
The power sector is being driven by investments of US$190 billion over recent years to boost capacity by 190,000 megawatts.
North American industrial demand for gas is expected to grow again towards the end of the decade, when the advent of LNG supplies should ease the supply-demand balance, while residential and commercial customers will need only an extra 1 billion cubic feet per day.
For the United States, CERA predicts production declines from the Gulf Coast and Midcontinent, although the Rocky Mountains should increase, especially in the Powder River basin coal seam.
The latest Canadian export numbers show a total for the first 11 months of last year of 3.11 trillion cubic feet, down 9.3 percent from 3.43 tcf in the same period of 2002.
The National Energy Board reported that exports in November alone dropped by 15.6 percent to 269.7 billion cubic feet, while revenues for the month slumped by 21.1 percent to C$1.55 billion.
But the 11-month revenues were C$22.86 billion, up from C$16.05 billion in the same period of 2002, reflecting a jump in average prices to C$6.77 per gigajoule from C$4.34 in 2002.
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