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September 2002

Vol. 7, No. 35 Week of September 01, 2002

Cook Inlet finally pays off for Danco investors

As his corporation wraps up its affairs, and with royalty income from Redoubt Shoal soon to flow in, Dan Donkel is looking at forming a new corporation to pursue other prospects in Alaska, including Cook Inlet’s Harriet Point

Steve Sutherlin

PNA Managing Editor

Danco Exploration and its founder Dan Donkel will finally cash in on their Cook Inlet investments later this year when they collect on overriding royalties from the Redoubt Shoal unit, an offshore oil field under development by Forest Oil Corp. in northern Cook Inlet. Depending on whom you talk to — the state or Forest Oil — Redoubt is expected to hold between 100 million and 200 million barrels of recoverable oil.

“My clients and I will be well heeled on these leases,” Donkel says.

Began buying leases in 1983

Dan Donkel started buying leases in Cook Inlet in 1983.

“I said Cook Inlet was underdeveloped … had tremendous potential, but I couldn’t get anybody to listen to me,” he says.

He did eventually secure some private investment to back his acquisition of both leases and technical data.

One of Donkel’s smartest investments, a fellow investor told PNA, was his purchase of Chevron’s geological and geophysical data from Cook Inlet as the company was exiting the inlet.

When asked if he has based a lot of his lease purchases in the inlet on that data, Donkel said yes.

“I got 3,000 miles of seismic from them and just about everything they had from studies of the inlet. I even agreed to hire some of their people for awhile, including their Cook Inlet exploration manager.”

It was Chevron’s data and the acquisition of former Redoubt Shoal leaseholder Amoco Production Co.’s seismic and drilling data that convinced Donkel Redoubt Shoal was a viable prospect.

Amoco discovered oil at Redoubt Shoal in 1967, but did not develop it in favor of other Cook Inlet projects, eventually letting the leases go back to the state. Danco Exploration picked them up in two state lease sales in 1991 and 1993.

“We’re more than a lease hound that buys leases just to sell. We interpret scientific data,” he says. “We’re explorationists.”

Danco sells Redoubt to Forcenergy

By 1994, Danco had amassed 247,000 acres in Cook Inlet was in the top 10 leaseholders in the state.

Danco sold its Redoubt leases in 1996 to Forcenergy Inc. (predecessor to Forest Oil), keeping an overriding interest in the leases which have since been unitized. (See sidebar)

Danco Exploration, along with related companies Danco Inc. and Danco Alaska Partnership, voted to dissolve and wind up affairs in 1997 after the sale to Forcenergy.

Danco Inc. still exists for the sole purpose of pressing legal claims for Danco investors, Dan Donkel, its president, told PNA. Several of those claims have been against the state of Alaska.

Donkel says case law important

Donkel has been an outspoken, sometimes turbulent, presence in Alaska’s oil patch and has been more than willing to go to court to prove a point. He thinks he is in court too much and he worries about the message that is sending.

But Donkel sees a higher purpose in his court battles, fighting for the right of a small company like his to exist in Alaska, and in the challenging environment of Cook Inlet.

“These cases are generating a lot of case law, and it’s important that we get good case law in Alaska,” Donkel says.

As his corporation wraps up its affairs, and with royalty income from Redoubt Shoal soon to flow in, Donkel sees an opportunity to redefine his position in the industry. Going into the future, Donkel told PNA, he wants to focus on the positive future opportunities for the public of Alaska and investors.

“We’ll form a new corporation, under Danco, or a new name,” he says. “People want to put money in but it’s hard to get people up there under the current regulatory conditions.”

Donkel’s future prospects

This past May, at the state’s Cook Inlet areawide lease sale, Donkel invested in leases that expand his position in the area.

Before the sale he owned an interest in six Cook Inlet leases with Richard Wagner and Bolt, including one tract off the northeastern edge of Kalgin Island, one directly south of Redoubt, one east of the North Middle Ground Shoal field and one adjacent to the North Cook Inlet unit.

Donkel says he thinks the Redoubt Shoal structure extends as far south as Kalgin Island.

He also wants to develop a promising prospect at Harriet Point.

Jerry Hodgden, geologist and former director of Danco Inc., echoes Donkel’s excitement for Harriet Point.

“Harriet Point is a wonderful little prospect; I like it better in some ways than Redoubt Shoal,” Hodgden told PNA, adding that he would like to see a bit more seismic before drilling, but that he had seen enough to know they have something there.

“There’s a lot of undiscovered petroleum in Cook Inlet but the dollars were diverted to the North Slope,” Hodgden says. “But now we know there’s a lot of undiscovered oil; our seismic ability is better. We know about Cook Inlet.”

On the North Slope Donkel has interests in leases southeast of Kuparuk; two are directly south of the Prudhoe Bay unit and two are adjacent to the Prudhoe Bay unit near Deadhorse. Three tracts south of Prudhoe Bay and one west of the Dalton highway near the trans-Alaska oil pipeline have abandoned wells, he says.





March 1996: Danco hires top analyst to evaluate Redoubt Shoal

A prominent reservoir analyst hired by independent Danco Exploration to evaluate its offshore Redoubt Shoal prospect believes the undeveloped Cook Inlet field could hold commercial quantities of oil.

It was also learned that Danco has approached Cook Inlet’s largest producer about joining a venture aimed at bringing Redoubt Shoal into production, an offer Unocal told PNA it’s willing to consider should project economics work out.

“We’re not actively looking for an interest in it,” cautioned Kevin Tabler. Unocal’s Alaska land manager. “But, if it’s a good opportunity, we’re going to jump on it.”

Meanwhile, Danco’s reservoir analyst — Netherland, Sewell and Associates of Houston, Texas — told PNA that economics for Redoubt Shoal so far look good. …

“It’s not without risk, but I think it’s a viable prospect,” said Bob Harvey, senior geologist for the Houston firm, among the top reservoir analysts in the country.

“If this prospect were in the Gulf of Mexico, it would have been drilled years ago,” added Frank Hicks, a reservoir engineer for the firm. “The economics are getting to the point where it could be done in the Cook Inlet.”

Unocal’s participation would greatly improve the odds of success, largely because of existing company infrastructure that could be used to transport Redoubt Shoal oil ashore.

With most of the offshore platforms and half of Cook Inlet production, Unocal has invested heavily in recent years to sustain its 20,000 barrels a day of crude production, an effort that has met with mixed results.

Unocal looking for more oil

Because of Cook Inlet fields that have been in decline for years, Unocal is looking for additional sources of oil to keep its extensive operation going.

It so happens the company’s floundering Dillon platform, scheduled for shutdown in the near future, is located in the Middle Ground Shoal unit just northeast of Danco’s prospect. A Danco option calls for Redoubt Shoal crude, if it proves to be commercial, to be piped to Dillon and then to the onshore Tesoro refinery at Nikiski, Danco’s preferred customer.

“We encourage Danco to get out and test it,” Tabler said of Redoubt Shoal. “And we’ll do what we can to help with the economics.”

Estimates range from 10-400 million barrels

Because the reservoir study has not been completed, oil reserve estimates for Redoubt Shoal currently are too broad to be significant, ranging from as low as 10 million barrels to as high as 400 million barrels. …

Dan Donkel, president of Danco Exploration of Daytona Beach, Fl., believes Redoubt Shoal holds enough oil to supply the Tesoro refinery for 30 years.

“We feel 250 million barrels is very reasonable,” Donkel said of field reserves. “It could be more.”

Previous lease owners drilled several wells on tracts now held by Danco that date back as far as the late 1960s, with at least one of them flow tested at about 1,4000 barrels a day.

“It’s a nice looking prospect,” Hicks said,” and whether it happens now or later, someone is going to get out there and drill.”

Danco has advantage

Danco’s consulting firm emphasized that unlike Redoubt Shoal’s previous owners, whose leases eventually were returned to the state, Danco has two things working for it that now make the project more attractive economically.

For one, Danco is the sole owner of all the tracts that overlie the prospect, making it easier to fully appraise the oil accumulation without having to deal with multiple interests.

Moreover, the state royalty rate under existing lease terms is light years more favorable to Danco that the steep royalty the previous owners would have had to pay on Redoubt Shoal production. …

Danco packaging deal

“What we’re proposing to do is add value to Unocal’s infrastructure and suggesting Tesoro hire Unocal to take advantage of their expertise and infrastructure,” Donkel said.

Donkel said he is looking to “package” a deal for Redoubt Shoal, referring someone else to develop the property in exchange for a royalty share.

“But we like to structure our royalty deals low until after pay out and then to increase it to an acceptable industry standard,” he said. “But if other companies elect not to do it (develop the leases), we might stay more involved.”

Editor’s note: In May 1996, Netherland, Sewell and Associates told PNA that reserve estimates at Redoubt Shoal looked to be much smaller than Danco’s initial estimate of 250 million barrels of oil. The firm was hired by Danco to appraise the offshore prospect prior to Redoubt Shoal’s sale to Forcenergy. Netherland, Sewell estimated “proven” and “probably” reserves at 38.1 million barrels, with a low end of 13.4 million and a high end of 154.9 million barrels.


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