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February 2016

Vol. 21, No. 7 Week of February 14, 2016

Trudeau a puzzle

Prime minister sells message of hope in Alberta, telling unemployed worker to ‘hang in there’; rejects pipelines as political issue

GARY PARK

For Petroleum News

In a hastily arranged, whistle-stop visit to the heartland of Canada’s resource industry, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as he has done on frequent occasions since his election four months ago, scattered promises like confetti without saying exactly how and when he plans to deliver.

He spent one day meeting with Alberta Premier Rachel Notley in Edmonton and another in Calgary with the leaders of seven oil and natural gas producers - Suncor Energy, Encana, Husky Energy, Cenovus Energy, Imperial Oil, Shell Canada and Canadian Natural Resources - and of many service companies.

His visit occurred against disclosure that the province lost 10,000 jobs in January on top of 35,000 last year and its unemployment rate surged to 7.4 percent from 7 percent, while 5,000 Albertans moved to British Columbia.

The best hope Trudeau offered came in a face-to-face television meeting with an unemployed oilfield worker.

“Hang in there,” he told the slightly bewildered man.

Chad Miller, 35, a pipeline and facilities consultant, told reporters he has managed to work for only five of the last 14 months.

He said Albertans want more than platitudes from Trudeau.

“There’s people that need help now, and when he says ‘just hang in there’, what does that mean?”

To the industry elite, who more than anything want to see new pipelines approved - even though none of the Big Three pipeline companies, TransCanada, Enbridge and Kinder Morgan, was invited to the meeting - there was more of the same.

Trudeau said he “understood” that oil export pipelines are needed and promised greater collaboration to make them happen.

However, he would not say whether his government would approve the Energy East and Trans Mountain expansion projects if the National Energy Board recommended approval.

“One of the challenges we are in right now is that my predecessors (referring to the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper) have politicized that process. I am not going to pre-judge or shortcut the NEB process as it goes forward. It is important that we have confidence in our regulators.”

No cheerleader role

Trudeau and Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr agreed it was not the government’s role to play “cheerleader” on the proposed pipelines, arguing Canadians need to have confidence in the regulatory hearings and deliberations.

In a question-and-answer session at a Calgary Chamber of Commerce meeting, Carr said the Harper administration’s pipeline advocacy only resulted in a failure to get projects built, notably TransCanada’s Keystone XL.

He said the previous government had strong ties to Alberta at a time when oil prices were US$100 a barrel, but was unable to get even a mile of pipeline built.

“So would it be sensible for this government to say we’re going to do the same thing and hope that things turn out differently? I don’t think so. I think that a rational approach is to say that we’re going to do it differently,” Carr said.

That changed approach started in January when Carr and Environment Minister Catherine McKenna promised revisions to the regulatory process to “restore trust” in pipeline reviews, including assessment of climate change impact and enhanced consultation with affected indigenous communities, extending hearings for Energy East and Trans Mountain.

Trudeau talks new process

Trudeau said the government’s role is to “put in place a process by which TransCanada or any other company can demonstrate that their projects are in the public interest and could have public support.

“It’s not just governments which give permits. Communities must also give their approval, give permission,” he said.

But, in an apparent contradiction, Trudeau said his objective is to “recognize that one of the responsibilities of a government of Canada is to be able to find ways to export our products, our resources, in a responsible way.”

Chamber President Adam Legge called on Carr to view market access as “the art of the possible. All we ask is that we not be placed in the penalty box of (the Canadian Confederation) simply for having a different base of resources than other provinces.”

Asim Ghosh, chief executive officer of Husky Energy, said Trudeau appears to understand the “seriousness” of the situation facing Canada’s petroleum industry.

“We know Canada’s economic engine is limping and the fact that he is here is a clear indication that he understands the federal government cannot remain on the sidelines,” Ghosh said.

Where on Alberta oil sands?

At the core of the confusion is exactly where Trudeau stands on the development of the Alberta oil sands, the underpinning of Husky.

Just over three years ago, before he even became leader of the now-governing Liberal Party, he told an oil and gas audience in Calgary that “there’s not a country in the world that would find 170 billion barrels of oil under the ground and leave them there.”

That was a key part of a mission selling himself as an economic pragmatist and establishing himself as altogether different from his father and former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau who brought the industry to its knees by imposing the National Energy Program that cost thousands of jobs, forced many U.S.-based companies to quit their Canadian operations and provided billions of dollars in loans and grants to promote exploration of the Arctic region.

He reinforced that message by also endorsing the provision of major new pipelines out of the oil sands to North America and offshore markets.

Since the October election, he has given a nodding agreement to global activists who are demanding an end to the use of fossil fuels by introducing the new regulatory requirements for pipeline hearings, imposing the climate-change test on export pipelines and formalizing a moratorium on oil tanker traffic off the northern British Columbia coast.

Rather than developing a government policy on pipelines, he pledged to tell other Canadians about advances being achieved in Alberta through “tremendous innovation and research and improvements in energy efficiency.”

“We are going to work together in coming years to ensure we are creating a pan-Canadian approach that is building a strong economy and protecting the environment without marginalizing or pointing fingers,” Trudeau said.





Sweet and sour

On the same day TransCanada tried to put a positive spin on its Energy East pipeline it was sent reeling by the Canadian government’s energy regulator.

In an effort to sway hard-line Quebecers who want nothing to do with letting crude bitumen from the oil sands cross their province, TransCanada unveiled an agreement to supply electrical equipment for the pipeline that would create 120 direct jobs and 90 spinoff jobs. The company said it has a deal valued at “several million dollars” with the Canadian arm of Swiss-based ABB Group to manufacture at least 22 structures to supply electricity to pumping stations in the Montreal area.

“This agreement demonstrates our ongoing commitment to hire local suppliers to safely build this piece of national energy infrastructure and support job creation in Quebec,” said Energy East President John Soini.

But that attempt to demonstrate the economic value of Energy East across Canada was overshadowed when the National Energy Board said the pipeline application was too complex and ordered changes.

The agency, while not asking for a whole new application, ordered the repackaging of information for the C$15.7 billion project.

“When considering the numerous supplemental reports, project updates, errata and amendments coupled with the sheer volume of information presented in the application, the board is of the view that the application, in its present form, is difficult even for experts to navigate,” it wrote to TransCanada.

The NEB said its concern extended to the impact on the “fairness and efficiency of the hearing process and the potential burdens on all parties.”

It is coming under growing pressure from the Canadian government to improve the transparency of public hearings and allow greater public participation in those hearings.

—GARY PARK


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