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EIA forecasts a 13% increase in Alaska oil production next year
Alan Bailey for Petroleum News
In a Nov. 21 announcement the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that after decades of decline Alaska oil production will increase by 13% in 2026. The agency said it anticipates Alaska production to reach 477,000 barrels per day in 2026, the highest level of production since 2018.
The agency attributes the production increase to two development projects: ConocoPhillips' Nuna project, which came online in December 2024, and phase 1 of the Pikka oilfield, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol.
Pikka Phase 1 is expected to come online during the first quarter of 2026. Nuna production is anticipated to peak at 20,000 barrels per day, while the Pikka Phase 1 project is anticipated to reach peak production of 80,000 barrels per day by mid-2026.
EIA commented that the expected peak production from Pikka Phase 1 is now higher than what EIA had originally forecast. This has happened as a result of an expectation by Santos of an accelerated ramp-up to Pikka Phase1 peak production and with recent well tests demonstrating high productivity, the agency said.
Pikka field The huge Pikka field, located between the Kuparuk River unit and the Colville River unit, to the west of the central North Slope, has a major oil reservoir in the relatively shallow Nanushuk formation in the Brookian stratigraphic sequence.
Pikka was discovered in 2013 by Armstrong Oil and Gas, together with its partner Repsol.
In 2017 Oil Search, based in Papua New Guinea, purchased Armstrong's interests in the field and subsequently became field operator.
Oil Search and Repsol approved phase 1 of the Pikka development in 2022. Oil Search later commented that the entire Pikka unit holds oil reserves close to 900 million barrels, with 400 million barrels associated with the phase 1 development.
The phase 1 development has progressed to plan, with the drilling of development wells, installation of facilities and construction of pipelines.
In August Santos said that all major equipment was on site. The company also announced the completion of 21 development wells. Hence the pending field startup.
Nuna development The Nuna development evolved from plans in late 2010 by Pioneer Natural Resources, then operator of the Oooguruk field, offshore in state waters of the Beaufort Sea.
Pioneer planned to develop known relatively shallow oil resources in the Torok formation, in addition to the field's deeper reservoirs. But because the Torok resources extended fairly far south of the Oooguruk drilling and production island, the Nuna development was to entail the construction of an onshore pad for the drilling of development wells.
Pioneer proposed a Nuna development project, involving the southward expansion of the Oooguruk unit and the construction of two or more drilling pads in the Colville River Delta.
But in 2014 Caelus Natural Resources Alaska LLC purchased the Oooguruk field from Pioneer. Caelus sanctioned the Nuna development in 2015, building a new pad and a 2.5-mile access road.
However, in mid-2019, after further development had been delayed, ConocoPhillips Alaska purchased 100% ownership in Nuna from Caelus -- ConocoPhillips said that the prospect included 11 tracts covering 21,000 acres.
Kuparuk River unit expansion In early 2021, the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission approved a request from ConocoPhillips to include Nuna in the company's adjacent Kuparuk River unit. That then enabled ConocoPhillips to develop the Nuna resources from the existing KRU 3S drill site.
Expansion of a second drill site, the KRU 3T site, and the construction of pipelines connecting the two sites then enabled the development of the Moraine reservoir within the Torok formation.
In June 2023 ConocoPhillips announced the approval of funding for the development of the Nuna project. Development proceeded and first oil was announced in December 2024.
ConocoPhillips estimated peak production of 20,000 barrels of oil per day with cumulative recovery of around 100 million barrels.
- ALAN BAILEY
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