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EIA report says ANWR oil could produce 800,000 barrels per day
The latest analysis from the federal Energy Information Administration shows Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge could send up to 800,000 barrels of oil a day down the pipeline by 2020, if Congress votes this fall to open the area to drilling and if the office’s estimates of recoverable reserves are correct. (See related story about gas credits on the bottom of this page.)
The report also cautioned, however, that production could be delayed if development costs run too high.
At 800,000 bpd, the boost in domestic oil would equal 0.7 percent of projected worldwide production in 2020, the report said, enough to trim 3 percent from U.S. import volumes of foreign crude.
The report is based on a mean reserve estimate of 10.4 billion barrels of oil at ANWR recoverable under today’s technology — but heavily dependent on the price of oil to cover the expected high exploration and development costs in the area remote from existing pipelines and production facilities at Prudhoe Bay.
Production would not start until 2012, according to the report that estimates it likely would take nine years from congressional approval to the first flow down the pipeline. Though costs are a big issue in developing ANWR, the report makes no attempt to forecast production estimates at different oil prices.
Development costs an issue “This analysis assumes that the costs of developing ANWR are not significantly different than the costs of developing oil resources in other parts of Alaska,” the report stated, “If these costs are higher, ANWR production may be delayed.”
Congressional conferees continue to work on a national energy policy bill, with the state of Alaska pushing hard to win support for the provision to allow oil and gas exploration and production in ANWR’s coastal plain. Opponents are battling equally as hard to keep the area off-limits to drilling rigs, arguing that the area should remain a wilderness to protect fish and wildlife habitat.
U.S. Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., requested the energy agency analysis for use by the House-Senate conference committee working on the legislation. The committee will take a break for the Columbus Day holiday and is expected to resume deliberations the third week of October.
U.S. Geological Survey estimates place the amount of technically recoverable oil at ANWR at between 5.7 billion and 16 billion barrels, with a mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels. The Geological Survey estimates that 74 percent of the reserves are on federal lands, with the rest on Native and state lands out to the three-mile offshore boundary. Largest field projected at 1.4 billion barrels The largest field in ANWR is projected to hold 1.4 billion barrels, according to USGS estimates. “While considerably smaller than the 13-billion-barrel Prudhoe Bay field, this would be larger than any new field brought into production in decades,” the report said. “Subsequent fields are expected to be considerably smaller, with two additional fields at 700 million barrels of oil.”
Production at Alpine, the largest North Slope field to enter production in recent years, is projected to reach 413 million barrels, the report added as a comparison.
At 800,000 barrels a day, ANWR could provide more than 12 percent of the nation’s projected domestic oil production of 6.4 million barrels per day in 2020. Without it, the report projects domestic production at 5.6 million barrels.
Even with oil from ANWR, the report estimates the United States would still need to import 60 percent of its oil in 2020.
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