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The Arctic: taking a long-term view Alberta group looks at actions needed to address an uncertain outlook for the coming decades as climate warms and technology evolves Alan Bailey Petroleum News
As the climate warms and interest grows in resource development in the far north, the fact that the Arctic is changing is perhaps fairly self-evident. But the ultimate results of this change and the actions needed to steer those results in a beneficial direction are much less clear.
The Foresight Group, a section within the Alberta Innovative Technology Futures organization, has been pulling out the long-term binoculars, to assess what might happen in the Arctic in the next four decades and has produced a report called Global North 2050, setting out the results of its deliberations. Alberta Innovative Technology Futures is a research organization with a mission to facilitate the development of globally competitive commerce in Alberta through the use of new technologies and through the encouragement of an entrepreneurial culture.
Increasingly important The report concludes that, although there is major uncertainty about the future of the Arctic, it is very likely that the region, something of a political backwater in the past, will become of increasing importance to people in the south, with the indigenous peoples of the north having an opportunity to improve their future well-being through this increased regional importance.
On Aug. 14 in Anchorage, Alaska, Axel Meisen, chairman of the Foresight Group, explained to a strategic planning workshop for the Arctic Council what his group has been doing and what conclusions they have reached. Lois Macklin, principal business advisor for the Foresight Group, also attended the Anchorage meeting and co-authored the meeting presentation. The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum of the eight Arctic nations; the Anchorage workshop was brainstorming issues to be addressed during U.S. chairmanship of the council, starting in 2015.
Although the purpose of the Foresight Group study was to gain an understanding of the implications for Alberta of long-term change in the north, it became evident that it was essential to take more of a global view of the future, given the wide range of nations with an interest in the Arctic and also given the impact on the Arctic of factors happening on a global scale, Meisen said.
Jasper meeting In November 2011 the Foresight Group convened a three-day meeting in Jasper, Alberta, to discuss the factors impacting the future of the north. The meeting involved just under 50 participants, with a wide range of backgrounds and expertise, Meisen said. Meisen and Macklin subsequently compiled and synthesized the results of the meeting into the Global North 2050 report. The report is available on the Alberta Innovative Technology Futures website at www.albertafuture.ca.
The participants at Jasper identified a “very complex, challenging, very rich set of issues” facing the north, including energy resources, transportation and governance, Meisen said. And, from a global perspective, issues that will strongly impact the Arctic include future growth trends in the human population, geopolitics and climate change.
Rather than trying to isolate a single likely scenario for the future of the north, the group recognized the inherent unpredictability of the future and identified several possible scenarios, subsequently looking at potential actions to handle those scenarios. Each scenario made different assumptions about future trends impacting the Arctic.
Two major uncertainties In doing this, the group concluded that there were two major uncertainties that would have an overriding influence on those future scenario outcomes: uncertainty over future climate change and uncertainty over future world geo-economics. Future climate change, and its subsequent impact on the north, could range anywhere from a slow and manageable rate of change to change that is rapid and precipitous. At the same time, future world political structures could be stable and functional, or these structures could become unstable and dysfunctional, with current economic convulsions in the European Union demonstrating the type of issue that governments could face in the future.
A future scenario in which governments remain functional but in which climate change is rapid would likely lead to a situation in which governments at national, regional and local levels would have the resources to deal with the issues caused by the precipitously changing climate. However, with some currently populated regions of the world becoming uninhabitable, some people would be forced to migrate, probably northwards, with relatively small communities in the north being faced with a substantial influx of people from elsewhere, Meisen said.
A second, and diametrically opposite scenario, would involve a combination of dysfunctional government and slow climate change. The Foresight Group sees this type of scenario leading to the dominance of multi-national corporations in the provision of services such as healthcare and education, a situation that would be discordant in the context of Canada and the Nordic countries, Meisen said.
Then there is the “doomsday scenario” in which governments become dysfunctional while the world faces cataclysmic climate change. Social programs would be cut and, with widespread economic problems, development of the north would probably stall, as demand from the south for resources and services slumps.
In the opposite situation, the “blue sky scenario,” in which climate change is benign and governments stable, the north would become increasingly important to the world economy, as the world economy hums along and the demand for resources rises, under the impact of strong public institutions and a strong private sector.
Climate uncertainty The analysis led to a conclusion that there really is major uncertainty about the impact of climate change on the north — the way in which climate change will play out and what will it mean it terms of factors such as a rising sea level and melting permafrost. There is also major uncertainty about the future demand from the south for northern resources — a continuing expansion in the world economy will lead to a growing demand for resources, but a fractured world economy would inhibit this demand growth.
And then there is the difficult issue of trying to forecast future world population trends and population migration — will the world population continue to grow in the coming decades?
However, the Foresight Group sees several worthwhile actions to prepare the Arctic for the uncertain future, regardless of what that future turns out to be.
For example, there are many needs for infrastructure improvements and the use of innovative technologies, such as airships, for transportation, Meisen said. Inadequate infrastructure impedes progress in many northern regions, especially with the effects of climate change causing damage to some of the infrastructure that does exist.
Digital technologies And a key to the future of the north is an expanding use of digital technologies. Digital technologies have started to break down the geographic isolation of the north, enabling improved communications in business and assisting with healthcare and education. People can expect to see more industrial operations controlled remotely, while digital technologies present useful training possibilities, such as simulator training for activities to be done in Arctic conditions, Meisen said.
Canada has launched an Arctic broadband initiative, he said.
As interest in the north grows there are rich opportunities for research and development in new Arctic technologies. New drilling technologies might, for example, push down the exorbitant cost of offshore Arctic drilling, Meisen said.
And it will be necessary to cultivate entrepreneurs who can seek opportunities in the north, while it will be important to have corporations that are operating in the north also headquartered in the region, Meisen said.
Indigenous people And with the increasing interest in the north, there is a particular opportunity at the moment for the indigenous people of the region to play a significant role in what is happening.
However, with evidence of militarization of the Arctic, collaborative governance of the region through institutions such as the Arctic Council has become especially important.
Before coming to Anchorage for the Arctic Council workshop meeting, Meisen and Macklin held a workshop in the University of Alaska Fairbanks, gathering an Alaska perspective on their findings, with a particular focus on the future demand for Alaska energy resources. The Fairbanks workshop participants emphasized the importance of factors such as being willing to lead change, rather than passively responding to change; having jurisdictional strategies for dealing with the future; diversifying the economy; having a top-rate communications system; and having people with connections and experience in international markets, Meisen said.
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