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Vol. 10, No. 29 Week of July 17, 2005
Providing coverage of Alaska and northern Canada's oil and gas industry

Mac comes first

Deh Cho lawsuits dropped; rest of Mackenzie issues come before Alaska

Gary Park

Petroleum News Canadian Correspondent

Some of the accumulated clouds over the Mackenzie Gas Project have been scattered, but it’s not yet clear sailing for the C$7 billion venture.

And until all of the fog has dispersed, the Alaska Highway pipeline will be kept waiting for a decision from the Canadian government.

Ending months of threatened lawsuits, the Deh Cho First Nations and federal government announced an out-of-court settlement July 11, meaning that the Deh Cho no longer have the power to stand in the way of the project.

However, the government will resume “land, resources and governance” negotiations with the Deh Cho and the community of 4,500 people will receive C$31.5 million in federal money — C$15 million for economic development, C$6 million to allow full participation on the pipeline review and C$10.5 million to prepare for the land claims and self-government negotiations.

Deh Cho Grand Chief Herb Norwegian told reporters that “everything is back on track.”

He said the Deh Cho are “on an equal footing and we can now start dealing with some of the issues that are before us.

However, Norwegian said “we still have some very difficult negotiations ahead with the oil companies that want access to our lands.”

Indian and Northern Affairs Minister Andy Scott said the Canadian government’s discussions with the Deh Cho are “back on track and will proceed with renewed vigor — and in turn generate greater certainty in the Mackenzie Valley.”

But there is still no certainty that public hearings on the Mackenzie project will begin in late summer or early fall.

Northwest Territories’ issues still on table

Still on the table are talks involving the Canadian and Northwest Territories governments over the Northwest Territories’ demand for C$100 million a year to cover the social and economic impacts of a pipeline, pending a resolution of the territories’ claim to a larger share of resources taxes and royalties.

Until there is progress on those fronts, decisions on who will build the Canadian portion of the US$15 billion Alaska pipeline will have to wait, Canadian Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said following meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow.

“Our first priority is to make sure we get the work done, in a timely way, on the Mackenzie Valley project so that it can proceed at the earliest possible moment,” he told reporters July 8.

“There is progress on that front. We’re quite encouraged about how the Mackenzie Valley situation is now unfolding,” he said.

“Right behind that is the Alaska project.”

Beyond that, Goodale would not be drawn into predicting timelines, pointing out that Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan is the senior Canadian cabinet minister working the file.

Snow said he was not concerned about the order of events, adding he was sure Canada would “make a considered judgment through its review process.”

Goodale said negotiations involving the Mackenzie gas producers, governments and aboriginal groups are moving ahead.

That assessment was endorsed by Bob Reid, president of the Aboriginal Pipeline Group, which hopes to take a one-third equity position in the Mackenzie pipeline.

He told a forum for investment analysts that there have been indications of progress towards access and benefits agreements, opening the way for the pipeline to cross aboriginal lands, as well as towards the settlement of a land claim by the Deh Cho First Nations.

Reid said there is “too much at stake to lose this project,” which he said will provide “long-term dividends” to aboriginal communities for as long as gas flows from the Canadian Arctic.

He was less cheerful about the regulatory process, noting that more than 3,000 information requests (80 percent of them from government) were made after the 9,500-page Mackenzie application was filed last October.



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No need for northern bullet line

There will be sufficient unused space in existing Alberta pipelines to carry gas from the North Slope and the Mackenzie Delta to southern North American markets without the need to build a bullet line from Alaska to Chicago, says Ziff Energy Group, a Calgary-based consultant.

In a newly released 140-page analysis of the impact of northern gas through 2020, Ziff studied the delayed connection of northern gas to the North American pipeline grid and a weakening outlook for Western Canadian and U.S. conventional supply.

The complete details are available only to Ziff clients, but the firm believes there will be ample room for northern gas on existing export pipelines.

The findings are based on an assumption that 1 billion cubic feet per day of Mackenzie Delta gas will start flowing by November 2010. Alaska is projected to come on stream in late 2014 at 2.2 bcf per day, with incremental gains of 1.1 bcf per day in both 2016 and 2017. Ziff calculated that because of the Alaska pipeline’s size the Alaska pipeline toll should be lower than the Mackenzie charges to Alberta, even though the U.S. project will cost three times as much.

If northern gas is not fed into the North American grid, Ziff estimates that consumers will have to pay an additional US$190 billion (10-15 percent) for gas during the 2011-2020 period, while pipeline tolls for Western Canada shippers would rise by US$9 billion or 20-30 percent from 2015 to 2020.

It said the impact on downstream pipeline tolls in 2010, 2015 and 2020 illustrate the “benefits to existing Western Canada gas shippers and buyers of added throughout without capital additions.”

However, Ziff suggested that gas storage could be a challenge by 2017 when the Alaska project is expected to reach full throughput.

The impact of northern gas on North American producer netbacks at the key trading hubs (AECO, Dawn, Chicago, New York and Henry Hub) shows the northern volumes “moderate continental gas prices after 2011 for consumers.”

—Gary Park