Pumping Up TAPS: Production drops to 458,000 bpdRevenue’s fall forecast for North Slope crude down considerably from spring forecast Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
The Alaska Department of Revenue’s fall forecast shows a sharp decrease in forecast production compared to the spring forecast, with Alaska North Slope crude oil volumes dropping below 600,000 barrels per day beginning in the current fiscal year, 2012. In the spring forecast, Revenue was projecting production of more than 600,000 bpd through fiscal year 2017. (See story on page 10.)
The final year of the spring forecast, FY 2020, shows production of 530,000 bpd; the fall forecast shows projected production dropping to 486,000 — the first projection below 500,000 bpd — in FY 2020. Production falls to 458,000 by FY 2021.
One change between spring and fall is when production is expected from BP Exploration (Alaska)’s Liberty prospect east of Endicott and from ConocoPhillips Alaska’s west side CD-5 project in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska.
In the spring, Liberty production was shown as beginning in FY 2013. The fall forecast wraps Liberty into an offshore category which includes Northstar, Liberty, Nikaitchuq and Oooguruk, and while Liberty isn’t noted separately, the first uptick in production from the offshore category comes in FY 2016, peaking in 2017. The spring forecast showed a similar pattern, with Liberty production beginning in one year and peaking in the next and the uptick volumes are similar to standalone Liberty forecast from the spring forecast, which showed a peak of 39,000 bpd.
NPR-A production, shown in the spring forecast as beginning in FY 2015, is shown in the fall forecast as beginning in 2017 and peaking in FY 2019.
Only Kuparuk the same For producing fields, only the Kuparuk forecast remains the same, 87,000 bpd in FY 2012, dropping down through 83,000 and 81,000 bpd in FY 2014, with some differences in the out years, but nothing substantial.
Prudhoe Bay stood by itself in the spring forecast; in the fall forecast it includes production from Milne Point, so while Prudhoe numbers would appear to be up, they are actually down compared to the combined Prudhoe-Milne spring forecasts.
Prudhoe is forecast to produce 276,000 bpd in FY 2012, down from 297,000 in the spring forecast. The FY 2013 fall forecast shows 269,000 bpd, down from 284,000 in the spring forecast; the downward trend (both overall and compared to the spring forecast) continues through 2020, the last comparison year.
Prudhoe Bay satellites are also forecast to produce less in the fall forecast, from 37,000 bpd in 2012 to 16,000 bpd in 2020 in the spring forecast down to 36,000 bpd for 2012 in the fall forecast and dropping off to 18,000 bpd in 2020 in the fall forecast compared to 27,000 bpd in the spring forecast.
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