The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its first monthly Drilling Productivity Report on Oct. 22, forecasting October to November production growth in the six top U.S. tight oil and shale gas producing regions. Using more than traditional indicators, EIA predicted North Dakota’s Bakken would outpace Texas’ Eagle Ford and all other regions in new-well oil production per rig, as well as overall oil production growth (see chart).
EIA’s sources for the information on the Bakken appear to exclude Montana, which means the 50,000 or so barrels of oil per day Montana produces daily from the Bakken petroleum system were not included in the agency’s estimates.
The six producing areas — N.D. Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara and Permian — accounted for 90 percent of the country’s oil production growth and “virtually all” of its natural gas growth in 2011 and 2012, EIA said, noting that in the past year, the Bakken and Eagle Ford together accounted for about 75 percent of monthly oil production growth across the six regions.
While the Bakken took first place in oil production growth, it placed third behind the Marcellus and Eagle Ford in overall gas output and third in new-well gas output per rig, following the Marcellus and Haynesville, with the Eagle Ford coming in a close fourth.
New wells were defined by EIA as those that began production in the previous month. EIA predicted new-well production per drill rig in the Bakken would be 459 barrels per day in October, increasing to 482 bpd in November, with a net increase of 23 bpd between the two months. The Eagle Ford scored 396 bpd in October, 404 bpd in November, with an increase of 8 bpd.
Total production per region was forecast in the EIA report by combining new and existing well output. The agency put October Bakken oil production at 935,000 bpd, and estimated that between October and November, output from existing wells would decrease by 60,000 bpd, but new wells would add 86,000 bpd to the Bakken’s output, bringing November to 961,000 bpd. The resulting increase was 26,000 bpd between October and November, whereas the Eagle Ford’s increase was projected at 24,000 bpd, jumping from 1.023 billion barrels per day to 1.069 billion bpd.
Because production data reported by states can “significantly” lag, EIA said its report used rig count data coupled with trends in drilling productivity to make production estimates where production data were not yet available.
In introducing the new report, EIA said it “synthesizes several different types of information to shed light on the current rate of growth or decline in production based on indicators including the active rig count, drilling efficiency and the productivity of new wells, and production and depletion trends for previously producing wells. The productivity report metrics were intended to be more informative than traditional indicators such as simple counts of oil-directed and gas-directed drilling rigs in use.”
The Drilling Productivity Report can be accessed at the EIA’s website at www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/.
