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Vol. 30, No.37 Week of September 14, 2025
Providing coverage of Alaska and northern Canada's oil and gas industry

ANS nears inflection

Geopolitical risks boost crude despite demand woes and OPEC+ supply raise

Steve Sutherlin

Petroleum News

Alaska North Slope crude rose 36 cents Sept. 9 to close at $68.51 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate and Brent rose 37 cents each to close at $62.63 and $66.39 respectively.

It was the second day of rising prices as geopolitical risks overcame worries about oversupply in crude markets.

ANS leapt 95 cents on Sept. 8 to close at $68.15, WTI rose 39 cents to close at $62.26, and Brent gained 52 cents to close at $66.02.

Continued hostilities in Ukraine raised the risk of additional sanctions affecting Russian oil.

A Sept. 9 Israeli missile strike in Qatar targeting Hamas senior leadership heated geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

Al Jazeera said the strike hit during Gaza ceasefire discussions in the Qatari capital, Doha, citing sources close to Hamas.

"Recent diplomatic initiatives led by the U.S. and Qatar have been dealt a major setback," Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy head of geopolitical analysis said in a note reported in the Wall Street Journal, adding that much could depend on the response of Qatar, a close U.S. ally and Gulf Cooperation Council member.

"Any fallout could amplify tensions across the Gulf and beyond, underscoring just how precarious the situation has become," he said.

Crude futures rose Sept.10 for a third consecutive day following reports of Poland shooting down a flock of drones sent into its airspace by Russia.

WTI and Brent each jumped 1.7% to $63.67 and $67.49 respectively, shrugging off a substantial jump in U.S. crude inventories.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Sept. 5 -- excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve supplies -- jumped 3.9 million barrels from the previous week to 424.6 million barrels -- 3% below the five-year average for the time of year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Sept. 10.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels over the week to 220.0 million barrels -- at the five-year average for the season, the EIA said.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels to 120.6 million barrels -- 9% below the five-year average for the time of year.

OPEC+ adds more barrels to supply

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced in a release that the eight OPEC+ countries which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 met virtually on Sept. 7 and decided to return 137,000 barrels per day to the market in October.

The countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman cited a "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories," in the decision.

"The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments," OPEC said.

That flexibility made rising prices on Sept. 8 possible along with the fact that the OPEC+ adjustment was modest compared to recent monthly production boosts.

Oil also sold off going into the weekend of the OPEC meeting. On Sept. 5, ANS plunged $1.42 to close at $67.21, WTI plunged $1.61 to close at $61.87, and Brent plunged $1.49 to close at $65.50.

ANS fell 62 cents on Sept. 4 to close at $68.62, WTI fell 49 cents to close at $63.48, and Brent fell 61 cents to close at $66.99.

ANS plummeted $2.01 Sept. 3 to close at $69.25, as WTI plunged $1.62 to close at $63.97, and Brent dropped $1.54 to close at $67.60.

ANS fell $2.74 over the week from its close of $71.25 on Sept. 2, to a close of $68.51 Sept. 9.

On Sept. 9, ANS carried a premium of $5.88 over WTI, and at a premium of $2.12 over Brent.



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